How to Prepare for a Global Food and Energy Crisis: A Step-by-Step Guide

Introduction

In recent weeks, experts have raised alarms over a potential global food catastrophe triggered by geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruptions. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact global food supplies, while a new study casts doubt on the effectiveness of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as a climate solution. This guide breaks down the key developments and offers actionable steps to understand and respond to these interconnected challenges.

What You Need

• Basic awareness of global trade routes (especially the Strait of Hormuz)
• Understanding of fertilizer and energy supply chains
• Access to reliable news sources (e.g., FAO reports, Carbon Brief)
• Familiarity with carbon capture technologies like BECCS
• A notebook or digital tool to take notes on steps

Step-by-Step Guide

1. Step 1: Understand the Immediate Threat of a Strait of Hormuz Closure

   The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which 20-45% of the world's key agrifood inputs pass. If tensions escalate and the strait closes, fertilizer and grain shipments could be delayed, quickly slashing crop yields. The FAO warns this could lead to a 'global food catastrophe', with poorer nations most exposed. To prepare, monitor news from outlets like Al Jazeera and Bloomberg for updates on the strait's status and FAO statements.

2. Step 2: Assess Your Country's Exposure to Fertilizer Shortages

   Countries heavily dependent on imported fertilizers—especially from the Persian Gulf region—face higher risks. For instance, India is particularly vulnerable due to its large agricultural sector and reliance on imported urea. Meanwhile, Australia, which imports 60% of its urea from the Gulf, may see a resurgence in domestic fertilizer production. Check government reports or news sources like ABC News to see if your nation is taking action, such as subsidies or export restrictions. Sri Lanka, for example, has promised fertilizer subsidies despite existing debts.

3. Step 3: Evaluate the Role of Biofuel Mandates and Energy Policy

   The FAO has urged countries to 'closely ponder' biofuel mandates, as diverting crops for fuel competes with food supply. In a statement, FAO chief economist Dr. Maximo Torero warned of a 'perfect storm' if a strong El Niño event also occurs. Review your country's biofuel policies and consider whether they exacerbate food price spikes. The Financial Times essay notes how Gulf nations have become central to modern agriculture over the past two decades—rethinking these ties may be crucial.

4. Step 4: Examine the Climate Solution Debate: BECCS vs. Natural Gas

   A new study highlighted by The Guardian reveals that bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is unlikely to generate negative emissions within 150 years and may produce higher emissions than natural gas without carbon capture. Moreover, it could increase electricity costs by 3.5 times. This challenges government subsidies for wood-burning plants like the UK's Drax. To form your own opinion, read the original study and interviews, such as Prof. Joana Portugal Pereira's caution to Carbon Brief about interpreting the results carefully.

   

5. Step 5: Follow National Responses and Trade Dynamics

   Countries are reacting differently: China has clamped down on fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market, while India fears shortages and Australia eyes a manufacturing comeback. Track how these moves affect global prices and availability. The 'paradox' of restricting shipments can spike food prices, as noted by Bloomberg. Stay informed through Reuters and local news to anticipate changes that might impact your region.

6. Step 6: Plan for the 'Perfect Storm' Scenario

   The FAO warns that a simultaneous geopolitical crisis and strong El Niño could create cascading failures in food systems. Develop contingency plans: diversify supply sources, support local agriculture, and advocate for policies that avoid export restrictions. Engaging with community food networks and reducing reliance on imported fertilizers can build resilience.

Tips for Staying Informed and Resilient

• Follow trusted organizations: Subscribe to newsletters like Carbon Brief's 'Cropped' for fortnightly updates on food, land, and nature.
• Think critically about technology: Not all climate solutions are equally effective—always check peer-reviewed studies before supporting large-scale projects like BECCS.
• Support policy transparency: Encourage governments to publish data on fertilizer imports, subsidies, and biofuel mandates to allow public scrutiny.
• Prepare locally: Even if you're not a policymaker, reducing food waste and supporting regenerative agriculture can help buffer global shocks.
• Stay balanced: Avoid panic—the FAO's warnings are precautionary, not definitive predictions. Use them to inform, not to alarm.